Since mid-April, Sudan has been embroiled in conflict as the Sudanese military and a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces battle for control of the country. Sudan’s path to civilian leadership has been tumultuous in recent years following the ousting of former president Omar al-Bashir in a 2019 military coup. As the current power struggle continues, a humanitarian crisis is also unfolding. Medicine, food, and water are running low, and citizens are being forced to flee to neighboring countries.

We asked SIS professor and director of the SIS faculty’s Africa research cluster Ernest Ogbozor some questions about the ongoing conflict and its implications. In answering, he also consulted with Maha Tambal, a recipient of the Hubert H. Humphrey fellowship through the State Department’s Fulbright program who studied at the Washington College of Law and is from Sudan.

The Sudanese military and a paramilitary group—the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—are currently battling for control of the country. What led to this clash, and were there warning signs?

The current clashes between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), originally known as Janjaweed, result from the protracted political unrest and conflict in Sudan. After months of protest led to the exit of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, tensions persisted between the military and civilian factions of the transitional government. Also, a power-sharing deal between the military and civilian actors that led protests against Bashir to bring about a transition to a democratic government was interrupted by a military coup in October 2021. The primary cause of tension was the civilian demand for oversight of the military and the integration of the RSF into the regular Sudanese armed forces. There were early warning signs before the onset of the current conflict; some diplomats in Khartoum warned in early 2022 that they feared an outbreak of violence when the effort to transition to a democratic civilian-led government faltered after Bashir’s government fell.

Many countries, including the US, have evacuated their embassies, and are working to get private citizens out of the country while Sudanese citizens struggle to flee. Is this precedented, and does this signal anything about future foreign involvement in this conflict?

Foreign nationals leaving Khartoum don't necessarily indicate future foreign involvement; their departure can signal their concern regarding security issues and the potential for violent escalation to governments outside the region. Foreign governments may be monitoring Sudan closely and considering ways to contribute to the peaceful resolution of its civil conflict, such as diplomatic initiatives to facilitate negotiations among conflicting parties or providing humanitarian aid for victims of violence.

Sudan has had a history of political instability, infighting, and humanitarian crises. How has the nation’s past instability affected its current state of affairs?

Sudan's history of instability has had an indelible mark on its current state of affairs. Decades of political unrest, warring factions, and humanitarian crises have resulted in fragile economies, weak institutions, and deep social divides in Sudan. One of the critical consequences of Sudan's past instability has been an erosion of trust between its government and citizens. Years of authoritarian rule, civil wars, and mismanagement of economic resources have left many Sudanese suspicious of their leaders as they violate their oath of office. Sudan's past instability is at the root of ongoing conflicts and insecurity. Since 2003, Darfur's conflict has left hundreds of thousands dead while displacing millions from their homes. Armed groups, including Rapid Support Forces (RSF), known initially as Janjaweed, were accused of violating human rights while exacerbating existing tensions. Sudan is currently facing humanitarian crises caused by its past instability. Years of war and displacement have left many Sudanese without access to essential services like healthcare, education, or clean water; food insecurity also threatens millions.

Amid concerns over the humanitarian crisis, there are concerns that the fighting will cause regional instability. Why is stability in Sudan critical to the region, and what is at stake for other politically unsteady countries such as Ethiopia, Chad, South Sudan, and others?

Sudan's stability is essential to the broader region, and the current conflict could have significant repercussions for neighboring nations such as Ethiopia, Chad, and South Sudan. Sudan's conflict could lead to a massive displacement and influx of refugees into neighboring countries. Sudan shares borders with several politically unstable states, and some fear the instability in Sudan could add further turmoil in the region. Sudan's ongoing crisis could wreak havoc in South Sudan, emerging from an extended civil war. Both nations share a border, and tensions and conflicts abound, especially over oil resources; fighting between Sudan and South Sudan could exacerbate tensions further and spark additional instability there. Sudanese turmoil could also have severe repercussions for Ethiopia, which is currently grappling with political and security challenges in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. That conflict has already spread into neighboring countries, including Sudan; any further instability there would only exacerbate things for Ethiopians. Chad, which shares its border with Sudan, could also be negatively impacted by the ongoing fighting there. There are concerns that fighting could cause additional instability and further threaten stability there - both countries are already dealing with significant political and security challenges.

Although ceasefires have been enacted, they have not been upheld. As of right now, is there a clear way out of this conflict for the nation of Sudan?

One potential path forward lies in reaching a negotiated agreement amongst conflicting parties. The African Union and United Nations under Ch.6 and through the UNITAMS have made efforts to facilitate negotiations between the government of Sudan and armed groups operating in the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile regions, such as Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N). Talks have included discussions around power sharing, security arrangements, humanitarian aid delivery to these conflict-affected areas, and humanitarian relief assistance.

Another strategy could involve increasing the coercive regional diplomacy and international pressure on conflicting parties to end violence and engage in peaceful negotiations, including sanctioning those responsible for human rights abuses or violations of international humanitarian law.