Ecuador’s political landscape has recently been plunged into turmoil as the country prepares for snap elections on August 20. The chaos began on May 17, when President Guillermo Lasso dissolved both Ecuador’s congress and his presidency amidst an impending impeachment trial for embezzlement, triggering snap elections. As candidates began the campaign process, they promised to take on several issues plaguing the nation, including economic struggles, drug cartels, rising crime rates, and corruption.

But the most recent blow to politics in Ecuador was a deadly one: on August 9, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated. We asked SIS professor and dean emeritus Louis Goodman to weigh in to help make sense of this event and the current state of Ecuador’s election and politics.

On August 9, anti-corruption presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated as he left a campaign rally. Why did this happen, and who is responsible?

The August 9 assassination of anti-corruption presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio has thrown the Ecuadorian presidential election into disarray ahead of the first round of the election on August 20. The killing appears to be a threat designed to discourage Ecuadorian politicians from confronting organized crime in the country—a phenomenon that has ballooned in recent years, especially in the country’s coastal regions, where groups linked to Mexican drug cartels have been contesting routes for shipping Colombian cocaine to Mexico. Soon after the assassination, a group claiming to be linked to the Mexican cartel CNJG both took credit for Villavicencio’s killing and threatened the assassination of another outspoken anti-corruption presidential candidate, Jan Topic.

Ecuador’s current president, Guillermo Lasso, invoked the “Muerte Cruzada” mechanism for the first time in Ecuador’s history on May 17, 2023, after impeachment proceedings against him were announced. What is this mechanism?

The August 20 election is the result of an unusual provision of the 2008 Ecuadorian Constitution designed to avoid protracted periods of political paralysis that had plagued Ecuador for many years. This provision, called “Muerte Cruzada” (in English, “Mutual Death”) allows the Ecuadorian president to dissolve Congress if the Congress votes for his impeachment. Through Muerte Cruzada, it was thought that Ecuadorian politics could have a new start with new legislators and a new president elected.

With the government dismantled, elections have been moved up from 2025 to August 20, 2023. What does the race look like now, and how has the assassination impacted the race?

Contemporary Ecuadorian politics is extremely polarized between supporters and opponents of the Revolucion Ciudadana Party, loyal to Rafael Correa, who served as president from 2007 to 2017. In Ecuador’s 2021 presidential election, a conservative businessman, Guillermo Lasso, finished second in the first round but, thanks to widespread opposition to Correa, was able to win the presidency in the second round. Many experts have predicted a similar result for the August 20 election, and Villavicencio was climbing in the polls, enhancing the possibility that he would face RC candidate Luisa Gonzalez in the run-off.

What are some short- and long-term impacts that this assassination and election could have on Ecuador’s political landscape?

The immediate fear is that there will be more political violence in Ecuador. Such violence is relatively new for the country. For years, Ecuador’s armed forces and police had prevented widespread violence, having witnessed the destructive impacts of Colombia’s long-standing civil war and Peru’s Shining Path. Longer-term, the fear is that pro and anti-Correa politics will create political chaos akin to that of Peru, where politics pro and anti-former President Fujimori produced seven presidents between 2018 and 2022. Another alternative promised by candidate Topic is a frontal attack on organized crime, following the policies of El Salvador’s authoritarian president Nayib Bukele, whom Topic openly admires.