Indonesia is home to the single largest Muslim population in the world, and it is the world’s fourth most populous nation. It encompasses over 17,500 islands. Indonesia is also the world’s third-largest democracy; however, its status as a democracy with free elections is relatively new. Free and fair elections did not return to Indonesia until 1999, after the fall of President Suharto’s 32-year military authoritarian presidency. Many reforms and changes have occurred in Indonesia since the end of Suharto’s rule, but the nation still struggles with corruption, military control, and other issues that have resulted in the nation being labeled as a “flawed democracy” by the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Indonesia held presidential elections on February 14, 2024, which was labeled a “festival of democracy.” To better understand the results and impact of this election, we asked SIS professor and UNESCO Chair in Transnational Governance and Challenges Amitav Acharya and his research assistant Mudita Sandie a few questions.

Indonesia’s President-Elect, Prabowo Subianto won this election with an estimated 58% of the vote amid concerns over his past human rights record. What are these concerns, and how is Prabowo viewed inside and outside of Indonesia?

Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous nation (after India, China, and the US) and the third largest democracy. The fact that the election was peaceful and considered to be fair and free is a credit to the nation and its democratic process. However, the election also showed powerful challenges to democracy at work. Perspectives on this remain divided between those, especially young people, who believe that Prabowo has "changed" and has been able to embrace youths and those who believe that his presidency would undermine the nation’s democracy and its adherence to democratic values and principles.

The “change” in Prabowo’s persona may be a matter of optics. Without a doubt, he has adopted a more approachable and grandfatherly image, and the younger generation and others see him as a more likable figure than before. Some are drawn to his promises of political order and economic development, reminding them of his late father-in-law, Suharto, president of Indonesia from 1967 to 1998, who led with an iron fist but presided over a long period of growth and stability.

On the other side, many Indonesians remember his atrocities and alleged involvement in human rights abuses, including abductions and killings. Prabowo has never been held accountable, and he has not acknowledged these concerns. Many are concerned about how his presidency would affect human rights and democracy in Indonesia. His family links with Suharto and his vice presidential pick, Gibran Rakabuming Raka—President Jokowi’s eldest son, who was allowed, controversially, by the Constitutional Court (presided over by Jokowi’s brother-in-law) to be his running mate—have led to charges of dynastic politics.

Prabowo ran for president twice before and challenged the election results in 2019, leading to deadly riots. What made this campaign different and ultimately successful?

Two of the main factors behind Prabowo’s success were personal re-branding and having incumbent President Jokowi as an “indirect” supporter.

Prabowo strategically re-branded himself as “Gemoy,” which means “cute” in Indonesian slang, or a lovable, grandfatherly figure. Employing tactics such as shooting hearts at audiences; doing cute dances; featuring his cat, Bobby Kertanegara; and other tactics to maintain that “Gemoy” image. This image also extended to election posters, displaying Prabowo and his running mate Gibran in AI-generated, adorable imagery. According to Meta’s data, Prabowo’s Facebook and affiliated accounts allocated $144,000 to advertising over the past three months. This re-branding endeavour proved remarkably successful, particularly in capturing the attention of the younger demographic.

Equally instrumental was Jokowi’s indirect support. This was significantly bolstered by his widespread popularity, with an impressive 80% satisfaction rate among respondents surveyed due to his image as a "people-person" rather than a tool of conglomerates or elites. Although he never explicitly stated his support for Prabowo and Gibran, such support was widely assumed by the voters. This subtle endorsement led many to believe that by choosing Prabowo, they were implicitly aligning with Jokowi's vision for the nation.

In contrast, the other two presidential candidates did not project a compelling image. Ganjar Pranowo, the candidate of the PDI (P) party led by former President Megawati Sukarnoputri, had a strong track record in regional governance but struggled to translate his regional popularity into a national narrative. Similarly, former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, known for his intellectual prowess, found it difficult to broaden his appeal.

Prabowo has promised to continue the modernization efforts that current President Joko Widodo started. What does modernization in Indonesia look like under Prabowo’s leadership?

Indonesia’s modernization will continue. Prabowo did vow that he will continue “Jokowinomics,” or economic development plans that capitalized on Indonesia’s nickel, coal, oil, and gas reserves. But much depends on his team of cabinet ministers and the external environment. A global financial crisis such as that in 1997 or another pandemic will affect high-cost projects like moving the capital from overcrowded Jakarta to the Nusantara City in Kalimantan and building more infrastructure projects. Prabowo may be more cautious about receiving China’s economic investment, unlike his predecessor, whose economic embrace of China has been controversial among some sections of Indonesian society.

It’s also yet to be seen how he deals with Jokowi’s project of comprehensive maritime modernization, called “maritime fulcrum.” This was a vision to make Indonesia, a nation of some 17,500 islands with over 10,000 inhabited, more internally connected and to develop its international trade and security relations in the Indo-Pacific region. But after much initial fanfare, the project did not take off. It will be interesting to see whether Prabowo will abandon it, repackage, or revive it.

Foreign policy will also affect Indonesia’s modernization. Relations with Western nations like the US, the EU, and Australia would depend on how much they care about Prabowo’s military past, but there is a good chance that Prabowo will strengthen relations with ASEAN neighbors and Japan. Jokowi was something of a reluctant multilateralist.

Indonesia has fought hard to regain its democracy since the fall of its authoritarian regime in 1998. What does this election result mean for the future progress of Indonesia as a democracy?

Democracy is in regression in many parts of the world, and it is too early to say if Indonesia is following the trend. Much depends on how Prabowo conducts himself in office and whether he is really a changed figure as his supporters claim. But at this stage, it looks like Indonesia’s democracy is backsliding a bit. There are also corruption cases that the “whistleblower” system of Indonesia's Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) has not been able to detect.

As mentioned, a major reputational setback for Indonesian democracy was the decision by the Constitutional Court, headed by President Jokowi’s own brother-in-law, to overturn the rule that had barred someone under 40 from contesting for the presidency or vice presidency. This reversal in October 2023 allowed Jokowi’s 36-year-old son Gibran to contest and win the election as vice president under Prabowo. Although the chief judge was later demoted by an ethics panel, the result of his decision, Gibran’s candidacy, was not reversed. This means the entrenchment of political dynasties and oligarchy, though Indonesia is hardly alone in this respect.

There are also concerns about whether the democratic values and principles established since the downfall of the authoritarian regime of Suharto in 1998 will be upheld and respected by the new government. Also under scrutiny is the freedom of speech and media. There is a fear that Prabowo’s tenure might see a return of a repressive approach to society that prevailed during the Suharto era.