After the collapse of the German government in December, the German electorate went to the polls with force on February 23 to vote in a national election. Voter turnout was estimated at 82.5 percent—the highest participation since Germany’s unification in 1990, per DW News. Results indicate that the conservative Christian Democratic Union party led by Friedrich Merz won the election with 28.6 percent of the vote, followed by the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which won 20.8 percent of the vote.

Merz appears likely to become Germany’s next chancellor, and he has confirmed that he is already in negotiations to form a coalition government. According to the Associated Press, Merz says he hopes to have a deal by Easter.

To make sense of the importance and implications of Germany’s recent elections, we asked SIS professor Garret Martin a few questions.

Why was this an important election for Germany?

This was a vitally important election for Germany for several reasons. First, the election was initially scheduled for Fall 2025 but was brought forward because the previous coalition government collapsed in November. Second, the election is taking place in an extremely challenging context for Germany, both in the domestic and international spheres. Germany is the third largest economy in the world, and a key player in the European Union, but it has hardly grown in recent years. Economic woes and tension around immigration were key driving issues for the election, and ones that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) were trying to capitalize on. These domestic obstacles also coincide with a tough external context including the continued war in Ukraine, China’s competition, and the Trump administration seemingly threatening to abandon Europe. If these events were not enough, Elon Musk actively meddled in the election, loudly proclaiming his support for the AfD.

 While the center-right Christian Democrats party won the largest share of votes in this election, Germany’s far-right party also saw gains. What does this tell us about the current political landscape in Germany, and what do you think is causing Germany to shift to the right?

The AfD was definitely one of the biggest winners of the election. The party nearly doubled its share of the votes from the last federal election in 2021, finished in second place, and is now the de-facto main opposition to the government. AfD has gone mainstream.

In one respect, the story in Germany is a very typical European one. Far-right populist parties have risen in the past decade and frequently attract 20-25 percent of the voters. In the case of the AfD, its success is tied to various factors. It has, like many populist groups, tapped into fears around immigration and nativism to make inroads with the electorate. But there is also a clear geographical component to its success. The party has done extremely well in the states that used to be a part of East Germany. Many voters there believe that unification, and the major disruptions associated with it, poorly served Germans in the Eastern part of the country, and they often feel like second-class citizens. Moreover, keep in mind that East Germany did not have the same experience with immigration during the Cold War that West Germany had.

Friedrich Metz appears poised to become Germany’s next chancellor. Already, he’s promised to give Europe “real independence” from the United States. What do you think the results of this election will mean for US-Germany relations and the US’s relationship with other countries in the EU?

It was very noteworthy and surprising to hear Friedrich Merz’ call for ‘real independence’ from the United States. Indeed, defining what that means precisely, and then being able to implement a major shift in Germany and Europe’s security posture will certainly be a challenge.

Merz is a deep admirer of the United States and someone who is fundamentally a transatlanticist at heart. But he is also a realist, and someone who understands the need to push German and European interests, even when those are at odds with the US approach. While I do not suspect a complete break between the US and Germany because of the deep ties binding both countries, we can assume a rockier period lies ahead, and Merz will not hesitate to take a more challenging approach toward the Trump administration.

Finally, unlike the indecisive leadership under his predecessor Olaf Scholz, Merz should try to take a more proactive approach toward the EU, starting with patching up relations with major ally France. The Franco-German partnership has historically been an important driver for the EU. Moreover, Merz is more hawkish on Russia, so we can expect stronger support for Ukraine, which may further put the EU at odds with the US.